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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed. The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model consensus. The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if organized deep convection fails to regenerate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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