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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression has been meandering for much of the last day or so, and the longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued motion toward the northwest but with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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