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Tropical Depression KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060831 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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