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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-09-17 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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