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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 14
2013-09-18 04:53:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ...MANUEL GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 107.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO AND SHIPS NEARBY INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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