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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-23 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The deep convection that formed earlier today to the west of the center of Mario is gradually decreasing in both intensity and coverage, and the system is likely on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds. Mario is headed for cool waters, and it should be crossing the 26 C isotherm on early Monday. These cool waters and a dry and stable air mass should cause the deep convection to dissipate, and Mario will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours. All of the models show the remnant low opening up into a trough over the central Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is based largely on the GFS and ECMWF guidance, and now shows dissipation by 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to enter a region of strong westerly wind shear. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move north-northwestward at 9 kt. Mario, or its remnants, are expected to move slower to the north-northwest and then the north during the next day or so within the low-level flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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