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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-12 17:30:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 566 WTPZ24 KNHC 121530 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2024-09-12 17:00:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:00:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:34:50 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-12 16:59:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center, but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h, westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low beyond 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics