je.st
news
Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-11 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 317 WTPZ43 KNHC 110246 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep convection limited to the western portion of the circulation. The center of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak classifications have decreased from all agencies. Based on that data, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Although the wind shear is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26 deg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a drier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support continued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days or less. The depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
paul
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||