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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-11 10:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 524 WTPZ43 KNHC 110835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Paul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the east of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a result of intermittent bursts of deep convection. The cyclone's intensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates. Within the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. This should support further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California peninsula. A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more with the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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