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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-11 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 051 WTPZ43 KNHC 111443 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 The center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The southward model trend from the previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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