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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-12 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 661 WTPZ43 KNHC 120232 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Active deep convection associated with Paul appears to have ceased a little earlier today, shortly after 1900 UTC. At least one more advisory will be issued just in case Paul makes an unexpected comeback, but this seems unlikely due to the 24 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone. With no convection to sustain it, Paul will likely gradually spin down over the next few days until dissipating entirely by the weekend. Paul is now moving west with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. Now that Paul's circulation has become very shallow, it should continue to be steered generally westward to west-southwestward by the low-level tradewind flow until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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