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Tropical Depression SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-10-07 22:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago indicates that there are no longer winds of tropical storm force in the circulation. Therefore the system is being downgraded to a depression and the tropical storm watch for Baja California is discontinued. The current intensity is 30 kt, and since the wind shear over Simon is forecast to be very strong and even increase a little more over the next day or so, additional weakening is expected. The interaction with land could cause even more weakening than indicated here. In any event, given the lack of deep convection, the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The north-northeastward motion continues, at around 030/6. A consensus of the dynamical guidance calls for this general direction of motion with a little acceleration, for the next 24-36 hours. This will take Simon, or its remnant low, across north-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico. Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 27.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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