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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-20 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 113.7W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula an extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area in the southwestern United States, including flash flood watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to Mexico, please monitor products issued by the meteorological service of Mexico. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the central Baja California peninsula tonight, across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico on Monday, and into southern Arizona Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Monday. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate soon thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora through Tuesday. Moisture from this system is expected to spread northward and produced heavy rains over portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across central portions of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico through Monday, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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