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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-09-13 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 130 WTNT22 KNHC 130252 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 36.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-13 04:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-13 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and TVCE aids. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the models. Key Messages: 1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics