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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 7
2024-09-13 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 129 WTNT32 KNHC 130252 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 37.0W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 37.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-13 04:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-13 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and TVCE aids. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the models. Key Messages: 1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics