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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-09-30 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 33.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2024-09-30 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:37:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:37:13 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-30 04:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening. Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce is downgraded to a 30-kt depression. The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends. Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics