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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130853 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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