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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-05-31 10:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 343 WTPZ41 KNHC 310839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 A collapsing area of fragmented convection is all that remains of Alvin's cloud pattern this morning. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, between the objective intensity guidance of 32-40 kt and closest to the TAFB T-2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification. Global models predict that the strong shear, dry air, and cool sea surface temperatures should prevent any new organized deep convection from forming. Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and dissipate on Sunday. Alvin is moving northward at 9 kt in the low-level flow. This general motion is expected to continue through the weekend and only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 20.0N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci [ more ]
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