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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2025-05-30 10:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 637 WTPZ41 KNHC 300839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is unraveling quickly. Overnight satellite surface wind data placed the center of the storm near the southern edge of the cold cloud tops. The vertical wind shear analysis from CIMSS-UW estimates that Alvin has entered a region of strong shear. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on the recent scatterometer observations. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. Alvin should gradually turn toward the north over the next day or so as it moves towards a weakness in the ridge. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies near the various consensus aids. The increasingly hostile environmental conditions are expected to weaken Alvin further over the next 24 h. Strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should cause the storm to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci [ more ]
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