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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-07-13 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 345 WTNT42 KNHC 132056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from Eugene Island and Cypremort Point. The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next 30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana coast and the coastal waters. Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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