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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-07-14 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 930 WTNT42 KNHC 140241 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours. Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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