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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-12 10:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center. Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours. Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air. After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated. The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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