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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 20

2018-06-14 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...BUD LASHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 109.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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