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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 21A
2018-06-15 01:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142342 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Corrected formatting in summary section ...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 109.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California Sur, and within the next 36 hours across western Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later this evening and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone, or its remnants, are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early SaturdStewartay and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud is forecast to weaken tonight as the cyclone moves across the Baja California peninsula. The system should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low when it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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