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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-06-14 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141448 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 100.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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