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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-06-15 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 101.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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