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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-06-12 04:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120247 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 Deep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this evening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not changed much. The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate shear expected to persist for the next couple of days. As a result, only gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but Carlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so. Some additional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little weakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move over somewhat cooler waters. The intensity guidance has trended a bit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land interaction not shown in the official track forecast. The initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit north-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours while the steering currents remain weak. After that time, a deep- layer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Mexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west- northwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5. While the NHC forecast still keeps the center of Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast track has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and lies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF and HWRF on the right. Later in the forecast, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Acapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical storm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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