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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-06-12 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the center on the north side of the convection. While an overnight microwave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner core, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images suggest that the system has become less organized since then. Dvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt. The storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light steering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. Little net motion is expected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico. This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the northwest by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to the east to reflect the latest consensus guidance. The intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of competing factors. During the next day or two, the northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the shear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and drier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly strengthening. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to weaken Carlos. The latest intensity guidance has come down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the limiting factors above. The official NHC wind speed prediction is reduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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