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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 16
2015-06-14 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 100.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area today, and Acapulco recently reported a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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