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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-14 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The satellite appearance of Carlos has degraded this evening. A ragged area of deep convection persists near and to the west of the estimated center position, but infrared cloud top temperatures have recently warmed and the system's organization has not improved. Therefore, the initial intensity of Carlos is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 35-40 kt, as well as an average of the subjective Dvorak classifications received from TAFB and SAB. Carlos continues to be steered west-southwestward by a mid-level ridge to its north and northwest. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. Fortunately, the vast majority of reliable track guidance has come into much better agreement for day 3 and beyond, showing the weakening cyclone moving generally westward to the south of a low-level ridge. Substantial adjustments were once again made to the official NHC track forecast beyond 48 h to show a westward to west-northwestward motion on days 3-5, which is consistent with the latest guidance consensus. The updated track forecast lies closer to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE consensus aids, although it is still somewhat slower and right-of-track to allow for a gradual shift in the NHC forecast. Carlos is forecast to move over warm sea-surface temperatures in an environment with fairly low vertical wind shear for the next 12 h or so. However, surrounding dry air may periodically disrupt the cyclone's convective structure, and thus limit its ability to become more organized and intensify. Therefore, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. Thereafter, decreasing oceanic heat content and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear within a drier mid-level environment should induce a weakening trend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Carlos to weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Marginal environmental conditions and continued bouts of dry air will affect Carlos through late week, and it is plausible that Carlos will become a remnant low even earlier than forecast, perhaps by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 11.6N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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