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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-24 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep convection near the center during the past several hours, with the low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small inner core. Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel. The initial motion is now 350/9. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to move over cooler water and weaken. The resulting more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again an update of the previous track. The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment. Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening, followed by steady weakening over the cooler water. The latest dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that trend by showing dissipation after 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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