je.st
news
Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-24 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Daniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the center, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the past several hours. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has been increased to that value. The initial and forecast wind radii have also been revised based on the scatterometer data. The initial motion is now 340/10. There is again no change in the track forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north. This should result in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward motion on Tuesday and beyond. The only appreciable change in the guidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to move a little faster. Thus, the official forecast is mostly an update of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed. Daniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the forecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after 12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely between 96-120 h. All of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
daniel
storm
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||