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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-17 23:02:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172101 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands has found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The associated convection is not particularly well organized, but there is a curved band located to the north of the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the small circulation center this afternoon. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a tropical storm, the fourth of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Don is currently within a low shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is possible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern Caribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong low-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to open up into a trough. As a result, dissipation is forecast within 72 hours. Don is moving westward or 275/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move quickly westward within the strong trade-wide flow for the next few days. The NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 12.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 12.2N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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