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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-18 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with Don has continued to pulse near the alleged center today, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the northern and northwestern portions of the system. These rains have started to spread over the Windward Islands, and sustained winds of 25 to 30 kt have been reported at Barbados during the past few hours. Satellite, microwave, and surface data continue to suggest that the circulation of the system is likely not closed. Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled this evening, which should help to determine if Don is still a tropical cyclone. The anticipated westward acceleration of the system seems to have occurred, with the initial motion now westward or 275/19 kt. Don or its remnants should continue to move briskly westward during the next day or so in the fast trade wind flow over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Increasing westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and the fast westward motion of the system are likely to cause the tropical storm to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Given the fast forward speed, the remnants are likely to continue producing wind gusts to near tropical storm force over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.7N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.9N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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