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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-08-28 17:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281503 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CORRECTED DAY 5 INTENSITY FORECAST TO 100 KT. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 64.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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