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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-08-25 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 678 WTNT25 KNHC 250843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 51.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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