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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-21 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 210235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Douglas. The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous prediction. Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period. After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of the period compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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