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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-07-05 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 101.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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