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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-16 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance. Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United states. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction, HCCA. Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.9N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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