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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-17 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 778 WTNT41 KNHC 170248 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians. Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance. Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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