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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-03 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030845 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Deep convection associated with Howard has continued to decrease and become separated from the low-level center overnight. Several microwave overpasses since the previous advisory and recent ASCAT data have been extremely helpful in locating the center, which is displaced well south of the remaining area of cold cloud tops. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt, which is based on the scatterometer data that revealed 35 to 40 kt winds over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Howard is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward to the south of a subtropical ridge today, then turn westward by Thursday as the cyclone weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trades. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but has generally shifted southward at days 4 and 5. The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm should continue to weaken during the next day or so while it moves over cool water and into a drier and more stable environment. Howard is forecast to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours, but this could occur sooner if organized deep convection does not redevelop later today. The cyclone will be move over slightly warm waters after 48 hours, but increasing shear and unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should prevent restrengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.3N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 21.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 22.5N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 22.3N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 21.8N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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