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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-02 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020849 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Deep convection has increased and become better organized since the previous advisory with the development of a ragged CDO feature. However, recent ASCAT wind data indicate that the low-level center is displaced near the southern edge of the cloud shield due to some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses around 0600Z. The initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Howard is forecast to continue moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 48 hours or so and gradually weaken. By 72 hours and beyond, Howard is expected to become a vertically shallow remnant low pressure system that will be steered westward by a expansive subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and the new forecast track, which lies close to multi-model consensus TVCN, is just an extension of the previous advisory. After the earlier brief convective hiatus while Howard was moving over a cold water pool, the cyclone is now moving over warmer water, which likely has aided in the recent redevelopment of significant convection. Although some additional intensification is possible today, this will be short-lived due to Howard moving over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures and into drier and more stable airmass in 12 hours or so. After that time, the combination of even cooler water and increasing southwesterly wind shear should induce steady weakening, with Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours. While the remnant low is forecast to move back over SSTs near 26 deg C in 96-120 hours, strong southwesterly shear and a stable air mass should prevent any redevelopment of persistent deep convection. The new intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.3N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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