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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-02 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Howard's convective structure has not changed much since the previous advisory with the low-level center located just inside the southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is supported by a blend of CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Howard's center is now moving over sea surface temperatures between 25-26C, and it should reach sub-24C waters in about 24 hours. Vertical shear, on the other hand, probably won't be too hostile for another 2 to 3 days. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast to begin in 12-24 hours and should continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance is holding Howard's intensity up a little longer compared to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast follows this trend beginning at the 48-hour forecast period, lying close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. At this point, it is expected that vertical shear would cause Howard to become post-tropical by 72 hours, which is also a little later than indicated in previous advisories. It should be noted that the IVCN intensity consensus is 5-10 kt higher than the official forecast on days 3-5, so additional adjustments to the forecast intensity and cyclone status may be necessary if it appears that Howard could hold on as a tropical cyclone longer than currently anticipated. The initial motion remains 295/13 kt. Howard is located near the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is expected to build westward during the next 24 hours. As a result, the storm should continue west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a westward motion on days 3-5 once the cyclone becomes post-tropical and is steered by the low-level trade winds. There is very little spread among the track models, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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