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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-03 22:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032044 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 The intensity and coverage of deep convection being produced by Kevin has been decreasing, although this may be a diurnal fluctuation. There are some ill-defined banding features over the northern semicircle, and the cyclone still has some outflow over the southern part of the circulation. The latter is a bit surprising, given the south-southwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity is held at 45 kt which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is a narrow window of opportunity for intensification in the short term, i.e. during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to increase and the cyclone should be ingesting drier and more stable air. The official forecast shows slight strengthening overnight followed by weakening and eventual degeneration into a remnant low in about 3 days. This is very close to the latest model consensus. Some of the guidance, such as the SHIPS model, show an even faster weakening than indicated here. Recent microwave imagery has provided some good center fixes, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 360/7. Kevin should move northward to northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone for the next day or two. Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward the west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow. The GFDL and HWRF models show a much more northward track, and appear to be unrealistic. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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