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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-04 10:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040847 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Kevin continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center with cloud tops colder than -80C. However, cirrus cloud motions in infrared satellite imagery suggest that southerly vertical wind shear is increasing over the cyclone, and an AMSU overpass at 0458 UTC suggests the low-level center is near the southern edge of the convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The initial motion is 360/7. Kevin should move generally northward for the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the dynamical guidance suggests that the top and the bottom of the cyclone will part company, with the mid- to upper-level center continuing northward and the low-level center turning northwestward and then west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 48 hours and lies near the various consensus models. After that time, it is nudged a little northward due to a northward shift in the track guidance. The forecast track takes Kevin over decreasing sea surface temperatures in an environment of increasing shear. This combination should cause steady weakening after 12 hours, with Kevin forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours an to degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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