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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-04 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Kevin's cloud pattern consists of a large circular mass of very deep convection, with the low- to mid-level centers nearly co-located as of several hours. Since that time, satellite data indicate that the cyclone has begun the process of decoupling due to the 25 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear affecting it. Although Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, the initial wind speed is kept at 50 kt due to the weakening that has likely begun. Even stronger shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kevin should result in a complete separation of the cyclone's low- to mid-level circulations within 24 hours, according to global models. Substantially drier air behind the trough should also be entrained by the cyclone, which should cause a collapse of deep convection during the next or so. Global models depict Kevin becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and show dissipation by 72 hours. The new intensity forecast shows faster weakening than the previous one, with remnant low status and dissipation also indicated sooner. Based on fixes from a series of microwave passes overnight, the cyclone has been moving a little east of due north, and the initial motion estimate is 010/07. Kevin should turn due north soon when the trough to its northwest sinks southward. As Kevin decouples during the next 24 hours, a deceleration is forecast by the model guidance. A bend in the track toward the northwest and west- northwest is also anticipated during this time, when Kevin meets the opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope at first, primarily due to the north-northeasterly motion overnight but is shifted a bit southward once Kevin becomes a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 21.2N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.1N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.9N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.3N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 23.4N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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