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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-05 04:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050244 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Satellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north side of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent center. The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating from north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a recent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure. A blend of Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt. Remnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation probably degenerating into a trough by day 3. The center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing evidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous advisory, so it will remain 360/07. A leftward turn should occur overnight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center and being steered more by the low-level flow. The shallower cyclone should then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend as it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the previous one, and is south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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