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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-10 22:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated cyclonic gyre. This satellite wind data also indicated that the strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the disorganized satellite presentation. The scatterometer data along with surface observations from Clarion Island revealed that the mean center of Kevin is farther to the southwest than previously estimated, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/08kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Other than an adjustment to the short-term track based on the shift in the initial position, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery continue to suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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