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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-07 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation while a small CDO has developed near the center. Scatterometer data from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021 season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid September. Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. There is some spread in the intensity guidance with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as compared to some of the dynamical models. The NHC wind speed forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but slightly below the SHIPS guidance. The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west- northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids. The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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