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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-08 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Kevin appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a central dense overcast feature that is surrounded by fragmented curved bands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The cyclone is moving westward, or 270 degrees, at 10 kt. Kevin is expected to continue westward for about another day or so while it remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge to its north. After that time, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as a mid- to upper-level trough erodes the western portion of the ridge, allowing Kevin to gain more latitude. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is currently over warm 29 C waters and embedded in a very moist air mass. These conditions support strengthening, but there could be a moderate amount of northeasterly shear that will likely prevent rapid intensification. Nonetheless, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane during that time period. Beyond that time, however, progressively cooler waters and drier air should cause Kevin to level off in strength and then begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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